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ATH-M006 – Meeting 6: Forecasts, Cash Flow, Controls, and Financial Risks — CPA Perspective
Financial forecasts, cash flow, controls, and financial risks
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Instructor PerspectiveCPA perspective: translate business assumptions into credible numbers, identify financial weak points before a lender sees them, and help learners build simple financial habits they can maintain.Essential TerminologyProfit and loss statementCash-flow projectionBalance sheetAccounts receivable and accounts payableOwner drawWorking capitalInternal controlsBookkeeping cycleGross marginKey performance indicatorTimed Agenda – 120 Minutes0-10 min: CPA opening and continuity check. Review how Week 1 viability assumptions and Week 2 marketing/staffing assumptions affect the financial model. Learners identify one assumption they are least confident about.10-25 min: Mini-lesson on financial statements. Explain the role of profit-and-loss, cash-flow, and balance-sheet views using a small service business example and a small product-based business example.25-45 min: Guided forecast build. Learners draft monthly revenue, cost of goods or direct costs, operating expenses, payroll or contractor costs, taxes, loan payments if applicable, and owner compensation assumptions.45-60 min: Professional case study. Compare two businesses with similar annual profit but different cash timing. Discuss why profitable businesses can still run out of cash.60-75 min: Collaborative cash-flow scenario activity. In pairs or breakout rooms, learners role-play owner and CPA. The CPA questions slow-paying customers, seasonal demand, inventory purchases, hiring timing, tax payments, and emergency reserves. Each pair recommends two cash-flow protections.75-90 min: Internal controls and bookkeeping practices. Demonstrate simple controls: separate business bank account, receipt capture, invoice tracking, approval limits, bank reconciliation, sales tax tracking, payroll records, and review of monthly reports.90-105 min: Risk and KPI workshop. Learners identify three financial risks, three monitoring indicators, and one monthly review habit. Examples include gross margin, cash on hand, sales conversion, customer acquisition cost, average transaction size, payroll percentage, and accounts receivable aging.105-115 min: Formative assessment and CPA feedback notes. Learners submit or share one forecast assumption, one cash-flow risk, and one control practice. Instructor checks for realism and documents lender-relevant concerns for Week 4.115-120 min: Assignment preparation. Confirm Week 3 assignment deliverables: startup budget, pricing model, break-even estimate, 12-month revenue and expense forecast, basic cash-flow projection, risks, and KPIs.Professional Examples and Case StudiesService business example: A consulting startup with low startup cost but uneven invoice collections must plan for delayed receivables and owner draw timing.Retail or food example: A product-based business with inventory purchases, card-processing fees, spoilage or shrinkage, and seasonal demand must protect cash before sales occur.Employer example: A business that hires too early improves service capacity but creates payroll pressure before revenue stabilizes.Guided Business-Plan DevelopmentLearners update the financial feasibility section of the same business plan developed in Weeks 1 and 2. They connect target-customer assumptions, marketing channels, staffing plans, and pricing decisions to monthly forecast lines and cash-flow timing.Instructor Notes for CPAEmphasize usefulness over complexity. Learners do not need advanced accounting knowledge to create responsible projections.Challenge unsupported optimism by asking for evidence: customer volume, pricing basis, seasonality, capacity, and cost estimates.Flag issues for the bank officer: weak owner contribution, large early cash deficits, unrealistic sales ramp, missing taxes, unclear debt repayment capacity, or no bookkeeping routine.Avoid repeating Week 2 marketing strategy; focus only on how marketing assumptions affect revenue, expense, and cash timing.Formative AssessmentInstructor reviews a quick projection checkpoint: one monthly revenue assumption, one monthly expense assumption, one cash-flow risk, one internal control, and one KPI. Feedback is corrective and practical rather than graded during the meeting.Beginner SupportProvide a plain-language glossary and a sample one-page forecast.Allow calculator-supported paper tables instead of spreadsheet formulas.Use round numbers first, then refine assumptions.Advanced ExtensionAdd conservative, expected, and optimistic revenue scenarios.Estimate debt-service coverage using projected cash available for repayment.Track margins by product, service line, or customer segment.
Requirements
Required materials: Week 1 business overview and goals; Week 2 target customer, marketing, and staffing plan; Meeting 5 startup budget, pricing, and break-even draft; calculator; spreadsheet software or printed worksheet tables; current cost estimates, vendor quotes, wage assumptions, tax notes, and any available sales evidence. Learners should bring questions about uncertain revenue timing, expense categories, taxes, owner compensation, and loan repayment capacity.
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